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What is long-term trading to you? Paul: Well, for me it is simple fairly. It’s the others of my entire life. I think the main element is, when you’re thinking in conditions of the rest of your life, how do you want to change your stock portfolio during those full years, however long that life is? Now, if we want to get into a discussion you might have with a financial planner, they would say, “Okay, let’s look at the money you’re going to need for the next five years.” That’s a posture they’ll take often. And they’ll let you know that if you need the money within the next five years you should not have that at risk whatsoever.
This could perhaps include a child’s educational funding which should be in some sort of a short-term fixed income instrument, so five years is kind of a traditional starting point. But I’m thinking, if you’re a trader you should be searching 10, 20 or 30 years when we’re talking long-term remembering that for a 10- calendar-year period as we realize from 2000 through 2009 the S&P 500 loses money. It loses about one percent a calendar year for ten years, so if you’re not prepared to kind of survive that, you’re improbable to be a successful investor.
Rob: That’s a fascinating data point. I use five years when people ask me. Are you experiencing certain number of years worth of expenditures that you retain out of shares? Or do you not think of it that real way? Paul: Well, in our portfolio, in the buy-and-hold portion we’re 50/50 bonds and stocks.
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So, essentially, since we take out five percent a yr to go on, we’ve got a decade worth of money in bonds right now. They may be short to intermediate bonds, so I’m not taking any risk. That’s the stabilizing part of my portfolio. I’m not looking to bonds for income but for stability.
But, I don’t let those bonds sit down there and support that five percent distribution just. Now, in order to balance you need to consider money out of your bonds and put that money into stocks-Wait a minute… I can remember as advisor people saying, “Are you sure? I mean, we’ve been we’ve been successful with the bonds and the shares I’ve been paying.” And I’d say, “Believe me, this is actually the way it’s likely to work.” You take from the wealthy and give to the poor.
You keep rebalancing. Take benefit of those lower prices. And they say, “Okay, okay. We trust you (we think).Yr you get back for a meeting and the marketplace went down again ” And another, and you’re telling them again that it’s time for you to rebalance. They say, you crazy “Are? That’s what you told us this past year and we lost additional money! ” It’s not as easy as it looks for people to achieve that. This whole idea of buckets of money where you take money out of the fixed-income and disregard the equities-for some people that may just be the best way to do it.
Rob: Right, right. That’s interesting. Certainly, I’ve invested long enough to know there were occasions when the equities didn’t appear like they could fall plus they just kept dropping and falling and dropping. Yeah, it is hard. No relevant question. A very important factor you said a few minutes ago, talking about a falling market, is that you used the term you could add some sort of “defensive element” to a portfolio.
What do you suggest by that? Paul: There are a couple of defensive elements. We were discussing the 2000 through 2009 period. The S&P 500 acquired a horrible come back. Paul: Diversification. Then, to diversify away from equities with fixed-income and also, I think probably the best protection of all-and I’d not stop working.
I’m still working but without pay, but I refused to stop making money and placing it away until I had fashioned over twice what I had a need to retire. To me, that is definitely the thing that has allowed me to rest easier really. Rob: Paul, I’m smiling while you say all of this because the listeners are thought by me of the show right now. They’re in their car going to work. They’ve got their Starbucks plus they took a huge drink of coffee right when you said they need to save doubly much as they need to retire and they just spit the coffee out all around the dash and windscreen.